Presidential Daily Intelligence Briefs. The Ability to Predict Conflict in the Middle East and the World - Michael O. Slobodchikoff;G. Doug Davis;Andrew Furr Bowie

In an increasingly complex world, the decisions of American presidents can shape the course of global events-but those decisions are only as good as the intelligence behind them. Presidential Daily Intelligence Briefs: The Ability to Predict Conflict in the Middle East and the World pulls back the curtain on the secretive world of U.S. intelligence to reveal how leaders are briefed, how threats are assessed, and why critical warnings are sometimes missed.
Drawing on declassified Presidential Daily Briefs and historical case studies from the Cold War to the War on Terror, the book uncovers a striking reality: the intelligence has correctly predicted only about half of major global conflicts. It excels when focused on great power rivalry, yet repeatedly fails to anticipate revolutions, civil wars, and emerging threats-often with devastating consequences.
Blending rigorous analysis with gripping real-world examples, Presidential Daily Intelligence Briefs exposes the hidden biases, institutional blind spots, and human judgments that shape intelligence at the highest levels. It reveals not only how intelligence works, but why it sometimes doesn't-and what that means for America's future.